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NHL Week 5 Thursday (31 October): What Have We Learned?


We began NHL Week 5 last night. Our Game 10 (G10) furlong calls are now complete and our attentions turn toward the G20 stretch.

Here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. West Versus East. See “…What Have We Learned?…” for 26 October to see the breakdown of this continuing saga. We will roll up this week for the 2 November blog.

2. The Week 5 OT/SO percentage will also be updated in the 2 November blog.

3. The PP / PK numbers? Ditto the above.

4. At On Goal Analysis (OGA), we are fans of advanced statistics where they tell us something of value. So below, we cover the Top 5 team advanced stat rankings in terms of Corsi For % (volume of ALL shots), Fenwick For % (Corsi minus blocked shots) and PDO (team save– and shooting percentage at even strength). The two percentages are usually better if above 50% and PDO is good at or above 100. So we look for those numbers overall, at 5 – on – 5, at 5 – on – 4 (the Power Play) and 4 – on – 5 (on the Penalty Kill):

31OctAdvStats

Of note here, San Jose is No. 1 overall and 5 – on – 5. This explains their currently dominating play. The Islanders are tops at 5 – on – 4 which tells you why they are winning despite team shortcomings. And Toronto ranks as No. 1 at 4 – on – 5 on the strength of their high PDO due to good goaltending while allowing shots in the high 30’s each game and the fact that they have been scoring well.

5. Tomorrow, we will give you the Top 5 Forwards, Defensemen and Goalies in terms of their advanced stats numbers.

Now for the crux of our daily report: How do the Conferences look in light of the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and what remains on the G10 PQC Call schedule for this season?

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Thursday, 31 October’s games:

NHLeast31Oct

Some notes here reference G20 maximum calls:

1. Up to seven Eastern Conference teams can earn a Chasing Stanley (CS) call for G20.

2. Two more teams can reach a maximum of a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Six teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call.

4. No teams currently project to a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And one team remains at Tee Time (T2) or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention – see below.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. The only change from yesterday’s posting is that Boston and Tampa Bay switching who is the home (No. 3) seed and who is away from the Metro Division.

7. G10 PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 12 NOV – BUF

THUR., 14 NOV – NYI

FRI., 15 NOV – DET, FLA, MTL, WSH

SAT., 16 NOV – CAR, NJD, PIT, TBL, TOR

SUN., 17 NOV – CBJ, NYR, OTT

MON., 18 NOV – BOS

TUE., 19 NOV – PHI (the last G20 PQC call with COL and STL)

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Thursday, 31 October’s games:

NHLwest31Oct

Western notes:

1. Up to 11 teams from the West can earn a CS call.

2. One Central Division team cannot surpass an SS call.

3. Two teams can earn an ITC call out of theWest.

4. No team currently projects as a DoC call at this time.

5. And no teams project a G20, T2 call.

6. There was no change from Wednesday night’s seedings.

7. G10 PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

SUN., 10 NOV – VAN (the first G20 PAC call)

TUE., 12 NOV – ANA, WPG,

WED., 13 NOV – EDM

THUR., 14 NOV – PHX

FRI., 15 NOV – LAK, MIN, SJS

SAT., 16 NOV – CGY, CHI, NSH,

SUN., 17 NOV – DAL,

TUE., 19 NOV – COL, STL (the last G20 PQC call with PHI)

Our next blog will be posted on Saturday, 2 November where we continue to track the G20 stretch…

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