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NHL Week 5 Friday (1 November): What Have We Learned?


We began NHL Week 5 last night. Our Game 10 (G10) furlong calls are now complete and our attentions turn toward the G20 stretch. We also give you a rundown of the Top 5 Forwards, D-men and Goalies in terms of advanced stats and what that might mean in assiting your search for better players on your fantasy hockey teams.

Here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. West Versus East. See “…What Have We Learned?…” for 26 October to see the breakdown of this continuing saga. We will roll up this week for the 3 November blog.

2. The Week 5 OT/SO percentage will also be updated in the 3 November blog.

3. The PP / PK numbers? Ditto the above.

4. Yesterday we promised you the Top 5 Forwards, Defensemen and Goalies in terms of their advanced stats numbers. Here they are in terms of their Corsi For % Relative (the player’s Corsi For % in relation to his team’s Corsi For % when he is not on the ice) and PDO (team shooting percentage and goalie’s save percentage with that player on the ice). Note here for Goalies we will provide the Top 5 in Corsi For % (instead of CF%rel), and that all category leaders are in BOLD GREEN text:

SkatersCFrel1Nov

The Top 5 Skaters’ Corsi For Rel % shows you, for example, that when Clarke MacArthur is on the ice, the team directs 10.8 more shots toward the net than when he is on the bench. That is your percentage above 50%.

SkatersPDO1Nov

For Skater PDO, you are looking for a score above 100 which is the average. This chart shows, for instance, that T.J. Ohie’s shooting percentage combined with the team’s save percentage at even strength is high indeed. But you can also see he has the lowest SOG total in this chart. So a more impressive specimen here is Toronto’s James van Riemsdyk who has a 17.5% shooting percentage over 40 SOGs to go with the team’s Save %.

As a bottom line for fantasy hockey players, it is a good thing to pick players off of the top two lines on their team, who get PP and/or PK time and who have Corsi For Rel % numbers above 50% and PDOs above 100 if they are available.

GoalieCF1Nov

Goalie Corsi For % numbers are interesting. The Corsi numbers were initially developed by Buffalo Sabres goalie coach Jim Corsi to define a goalie’s workload during the game. In other words, what is the percentage of a game that all shots are directed at a goalie. So a high save percentage with a 50%+ Corsi number (to go with the W’s) indicates strong goalie performance. Anti Niemi being at the top of this category is another justification of why San Jose is playing so well.

Now for the crux of our daily report: How do the Conferences look in light of the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and what remains on the G10 PQC Call schedule for this season?

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Friday, 1 November’s games:

NHLeast1Nov

Some notes here reference G20 maximum calls:

1. Six (down from seven) Eastern Conference teams can earn a Chasing Stanley (CS) call for G20.

2. One team can reach a maximum of a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Eight (up from six) teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call.

4. No teams currently project to a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And one team remains at Tee Time (T2) or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention – see below.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. Changes from Thursday night’s final seedings are:

  • Based on Tampa Bay’s victory, they move up to the home team in the No. 3 seed and Boston moves down to the visitor from the Atlantic Division.
  • Based on the Islanders’ and Washington’s victories, New York moves up to the home team for the No. 4 seed, Washington moves up to the visitor against them and Carolina drops out of the Playoff picture in the Metro Division
  • And Detroit moves to No. 7 and Montreal down to No. 8 in the Wild Card seedings based on the Red Wings’ Win and Canadiens’ loss.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 12 NOV – BUF

THUR., 14 NOV – NYI

FRI., 15 NOV – DET, FLA, MTL, WSH

SAT., 16 NOV – CAR, NJD, PIT, TBL, TOR

SUN., 17 NOV – CBJ, NYR, OTT

MON., 18 NOV – BOS

TUE., 19 NOV – PHI (the last G20 PQC call with COL and STL)

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Friday, 1 November’s games:

NHLwest1Nov

Western notes:

1. Ten teams (down from 11) out of the West can earn a CS call.

2. No teams are currently projected as an SS call.

3. Four (p from two) teams can earn an ITC call out of the West.

4. No team currently projects as a DoC call at this time.

5. And no teams project a G20, T2 call.

6. There was no change from Friday night’s seedings.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO  The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

SUN., 10 NOV – VAN (the first G20 PAC call)

TUE., 12 NOV – ANA, WPG,

WED., 13 NOV – EDM

THUR., 14 NOV – PHX

FRI., 15 NOV – LAK, MIN, SJS

SAT., 16 NOV – CGY, CHI, NSH,

SUN., 17 NOV – DAL,

TUE., 19 NOV – COL, STL (the last G20 PQC call with PHI)

Our next blog will be posted on Sunday, 3 November where we continue to track the G20 stretch…

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