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NHL Week 6 Thursday (7 November): What Have We Learned?


We began NHL Week 6 last Sunday, and our attentions are turned toward Game 20 (G20) calls.

Here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East saga is due for updating after Saturday, 9 November games.

2. The current OT/SO percentage will be updated along with West Versus East above.

3. And PP / PK numbers will also be reexamined after this coming Saturday night.

4. What is the difference in output between a winner and a loser right now? Loser is a harsh word as most of us out there do not have the skill to even be called up for one NHL shift. But the fact remains that 16 of 30 teams actually make it into the post-season, leaving the other 14 / 322+ players / 14 organizational staffs to watch their HD screen for June Hockey or begin new endeavors. It begs the question, how big is the performance gap between No. 1, someone just out of the playoff picture and No. 30?

More specifically, if we measure that question by Corsi, Fenwick and PDO numbers, what is the difference between Anaheim, Los Angeles and Buffalo? Here are the numbers:

AdvStatDif

In terms of Corsi and Fenwick numbers, let us be clear – those are measures of the efforts required to fire the puck on net in attempts to score goals and secure wins. In practical terms, it’s antithesis is PDO which is the combined shooting and save percentage which speaks to goals scored. So in looking at Anaheim and Los Angeles, you have a combined 8% difference in Corsi and Fenwick in favor of the Kings. They put out more effort to get shots on net by about 2.5 SOG per game. The Ducks, however, have a PDO (combined shooting and saving percentage) that is 3.2% better than Los Angeles, or less than one goal per game of an improvement. So seven more standings points / 3.5 more wins / eight seeds in the standings comes from about three SOGs and one more goal per game.

The difference from No. 1 in the NHL to Buffalo at No. 30 is a bit more pronounced. Corsi and Fenwick differences are a combined, approximately six shots on net and two goals per game. It is a bit mind-blowing when you think one team can easily be better than another by six shots and two goals in one period of play, much less in three. It all means what Hockey fans subconsciously know – anyone can win on any given night because the differences are so small.

Now for the crux of our daily report: How do the Conferences look in light of the Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) and what remains on the G10 PQC Call schedule for this season?

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Thursday, 7 November’s games:

NHLeast7Nov

Some notes here reference G20 maximum calls:

1. This is the last day we will show you G10 calls that were not a Chasing Stanley (CS) or Tee Time (T2) call.

2. Four (down from five) Eastern Conference teams can earn a CS call for G20.

3. No (down from one) teams can still attain a maximum of a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, or just short of IN the post-season.

4. Ten (up from nine) teams can surpass a maximum In The Curve (ITC) call.

5. One (up from no) team(s) currently projects to a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

6. And one team remains at T2 or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention – see below.

7. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. Changes from the last blog’s final seedings are:

  • Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh switch as the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds respectively.
  • Detroit and Boston swapped as the respective No. 6 and 7 seeds.
  • And supplanting the Islanders for the final Metro Division seed on the strength of five wins in their last six games is the Rangers who seem to be finding their groove.

8. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

9. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 12 NOV – BUF

THUR., 14 NOV – NYI

FRI., 15 NOV – DET, FLA, MTL, WSH

SAT., 16 NOV – CAR, NJD, PIT, TBL, TOR

SUN., 17 NOV – CBJ, NYR, OTT

MON., 18 NOV – BOS

TUE., 19 NOV – PHI (the last G20 PQC call with COL and STL)

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Thursday, 7 November’s games:

NHLwest7Nov

Western notes:

1. Ten teams out of the West can earn a CS call.

2. No teams are currently projected as an SS call.

3. Three teams can earn an ITC call out of the West.

4. No (down from one) team currently projects as a maximum DoC call at this time.

5. And now one team projects a G20, T2 call.

6. There were a couple of changes from our last Western “If The Playoffs Started Today” seedings:

  • Based on points lost over a 2 – 1 – 3 record in their last six games, San Jose drops from the No. 2 to the No. 4 Seed.
  • With San Jose dropping, Anaheim and St. Louis rise up one seed position each.
  • While Minnesota dropped to the 8th seed, Vancouver who is on a 6 – 1 – 1 roll, moves up to the 7th seed.
  • And Phoenix and Chicago move positions strictly in line with the shuffling of St. Louis and San Jose.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO  The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

SUN., 10 NOV – VAN (the first G20 PAC call)

TUE., 12 NOV – ANA, WPG,

WED., 13 NOV – EDM

THUR., 14 NOV – PHX

FRI., 15 NOV – LAK, MIN, SJS

SAT., 16 NOV – CGY, CHI, NSH,

SUN., 17 NOV – DAL,

TUE., 19 NOV – COL, STL (the last G20 PQC call with PHI)

Our next blog will be posted on Saturday, 9 November where we continue to track the G20 stretch…

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