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NHL Week 7 Monday (11 November): What Have We Learned?


We now begin NHL Week 7, bringing us the beginnings of our Game 20 (G20) calls.

Here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East saga continues and is having an impact on predicted outcomes – see No. 4 below. Another weekly update was posted on yesterday’s blog and will be updated again next Sunday until the ship right rights itself.

2. The current OT/SO percentage update will also come next Sunday.

3. And ditto for Week 7 PP / PK numbers.

4. As you will see from the daily update graphics below, the Western Conference playoff picture will be at 50% from our Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) model. This will be the earliest we have had that much of a Conference picture since we began running our model. Is there room for concern here?

Well, maybe. The four teams – two of which (Colorado and San Jose) having already been called at G10 – have played and done very well against Eastern Conference teams for about 50% or more of their games played. If you have been tracking No. 1 above, you would know the East is not yet playing even .425 Hockey overall against the West. And the inordinate victories for the West has indeed bumped up the PQC prediction numbers for the West at the G10 mark and will likely do so again at G20. That is problem number one.

Problem number two is in how we calculate the PQC in 10 game furlongs. That system was set up in recognition of teams regularly hitting peaks and valleys in their play as the season progresses. Will this not skew the end result?

I would say those two problems might indeed throw things off were it not for one, unshakable fact. If the four teams that will be called Chasing Stanley in the West by the time G20 is done are winning that many games against the East, they are still wins that all other Western teams will have to pull off to catch them. And as we adjust the Western PQC upward to account for these W’s, those who will not make the playoffs will slinky their way away from the magic number.

SO WE STAND BY OUR PQC CALLS DESPITE THE NEARLY 60/40 DOMINANCE SPLIT OF WEST WINS OVER THE EAST. It just makes the predictive process that much more interesting this season. So stay tuned…

Now for the crux of our daily report: How do the Conferences look in light of the PQC and what remains on the G10 PQC Call schedule for this season?

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Monday, 11 November’s games:

NHLeast11Nov

Some notes here reference G20 maximum calls:

1. Four Eastern Conference teams can still earn a CS call for G20.

2. No team can currently attain a maximum of a Sharpening Skates (SS) call, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Ten teams can surpass a maximum In The Curve (ITC) call. Three (up from two) of them are already a lock and will be announced on their Game 20 call date.

4. No team currently projects as a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And two teams are a T2 projection or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention. The second T2 team will be announced on their Game 20 call date.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was no change from the last blog’s final seedings projection.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 12 NOV – BUF

THUR., 14 NOV – NYI

FRI., 15 NOV – DET, FLA, MTL, WSH

SAT., 16 NOV – CAR, NJD, PIT, TBL, TOR

SUN., 17 NOV – CBJ, NYR, OTT

MON., 18 NOV – BOS

TUE., 19 NOV – PHI (the last G20 PQC call with COL and STL)

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Monday, 11 November’s games:

NHLwest11Nov

Western notes:

1. Eight teams out of the West can still earn a CS call by G20. Of note, two were called at G10 as listed. We already know of two others who will get the call on their G20 announcement date, providing 50% of the Western Conference picture.

2. No teams are currently projected as an SS call.

3. Five teams can earn an ITC call out of the West. One of them is already a lock and will be announced on their Game 20 call date.

4. No team currently projects as a maximum DoC call at this time.

5. And one team projects a G20, T2 call. This team will be revealed next week.

6. There was no change to the last blog’s final seedings projection based on Sunday’s games.

7. PQC breakdown: 24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO  The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

10 November 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Vancouver Canucks open G20 PQC calls with a second consecutive In The Curve call, or just about average for Western Conference play.

8. The G20 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

SUN., 10 NOV – VAN (the first G20 PAC call)

TUE., 12 NOV – ANA, WPG

WED., 13 NOV – EDM

THUR., 14 NOV – PHX

FRI., 15 NOV – LAK, MIN, SJS

SAT., 16 NOV – CGY, CHI, NSH,

SUN., 17 NOV – DAL,

TUE., 19 NOV – COL, STL (the last G20 PQC call with PHI)

Our next blog will be posted on Wednesday, 13 November, with only one game played on U.S. Veteran’s Day having no G20 PQC impact…

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