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NHL Week 9 Saturday (23 November): What Have We Learned?


We are now in NHL Week 9. Game 30 furlong analysis is in full swing. Conference graphics show all G30 projections, with all teams having been called Chasing Stanley (CS) or at Tee Time (T2) remaining so unless at some point in the season they reach a Shot off The Post (SotP) call.

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East rundown still shows a favorable winning percentage for the West. Through games played Saturday night, 23 November, the East’s record against the West is 57 – 73 – 22 / 44.7%.  In terms of winning percentage, this is barely unchanged from last week’s record against the West of 48 – 62 – 19 / 44.6%. The Metro Division is still the primary culprit with a 24 – 33 – 9 / 43.2% record, but the Atlantic Division is backsliding into more even territory with a 33 – 40 – 13 / 45.9% record against the West. Who is giving them the most trouble? The Central Division is where they have played the Atlantic to 13 – 20 – 8 / 41.5%, and the Metro to a 9 – 14 – 3 / 40.4% records. When Eastern teams have played the Pacific Division, they are a combined 35 – 39 – 11 / 47.7%. Keep in mind the East has to play a total of 448 games against Western teams and we have only played 152 / 33.9% of that schedule, so more potential pain is coming to the East.

2. The current OT/SO percentage rose again slightly from last week’s 24.5% of all games played to this week’s 24.7%. That is three straight weeks with a gain and it still outpaces 2010-11’s final percentage of 24.15%. One interesting note here is that the percentage of extra frame games ended in OT rose from last week’s 33.8% to this week’s 36.8%.

3. For PP and PK numbers this week, St. Louis is still the PP leader at 25.6%, a slight down tick from last week’s 25.8% effectiveness rate. Note here that St. Louis has had the best PP in three of the last four weeks. Florida is at the PP basement for a third straight week at 9.3%, a drop off of that same .2% as St. Louis. Vancouver is the leader on the PK for the third consecutive report with an 89.2% rating, the highest in the last three weeks. The Islanders hold the 30th position at 70.3% for the third straight week, a downward trend of 3.8% over that span of time.

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Saturday, 23 November’s games:

NHLeast23Nov

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Six (down from eight) Eastern Conference teams have a shot at earning a CS call for G30.

2. Three (up from two) teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call by G30, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Three (up from two) teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call by G30.

4. No teams currently project a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call, or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And four Eastern teams remain a T2 projection, or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There are a couple of changes from our last blog’s final seedings projection:

  • Based on Toronto’s wins and a sliding Tampa Bay, the Leafs are nestled in the No. 3 seed with the Lightning as their projected, visiting opponent.
  • Based on their win in Music City, the Rangers overtake New Jersey who lost to San Jose for the No. 3 seed in the Metro and final team from that division projected into the Playoffs. This will be an ongoing battle with Philadelphia trying to catch and pass both.
  • And based on Detroit losses, Montreal takes over the No. 7 / Wild Card seed and the Red Wings slip to No. 8

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

THUR., 5 DECMTL, PIT

FRI., 6 DEC – CAR, DET, NJD

SAT., 7 DECBUF, FLA, NYI, NYR, OTT, TOR

SUN., 8 DEC – BOS, WSH

MON., 9 DEC – CBJ, PHI

TUE., 10 DECTBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Saturday, 23 November’s games:

NHLwest23Nov

Western notes:

1. Ten (down from 11) teams out of the West can earn a CS call by G30. This is still too many for the number of teams that can make the 2014 Playoffs and will self-correct before the end of the furlong.

2. No teams currently project as an SS call by G30.

3. Two (up from one) teams cannot surpass an ITC call out of the West.

4. No team currently projects as a maximum DoC call at this time.

5. And two teams remain T2 calls for G30.

6. There were only two changes to the last blog’s ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ seedings projection based on games through Saturday night:

  • Anaheim and Phoenix have switched back to the No. 2 and No. 3 Pacific Division seeds respectively after yesterday’s flip-flop.
  • And the same goes for Minnesota and Los Angeles who are now the No. 7 and No. 8 Wild Card seeds respectively.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 3 DEC – ANA, VAN (the first G30 PQC calls)

THUR., 5 DEC – CHI, EDM, MIN, WPG

SAT., 7 DEC – LAK, NSH

SUN., 8 DEC – SJS

TUE., 10 DEC – CGY, PHX

THUR., 12 DEC – COL, DAL, STL (the last G30 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Wednesday, 27 November after we get some more G30 furlong games under our belt…

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