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NHL Week 13 (Saturday, 21 December): What Have We Learned?

Game 30 (G30) furlong calls are coming to a close with all teams beyond the G35 mark. So far, we have a good idea of almost two–thirds of the 2014 Playoff picture. Below are our final calls through G30 and the new schedule for G40 calls.

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. West Versus East dominance continues for a 13th straight week. Overall, there is a second straight increase in success versus the West at 84 –100 – 29 / 46.2% over last week’s 73 – 95 – 27 / 44.4%. The Metro Division increased their Winning % (W%) versus the West from 35 – 47 – 12 / 43.6% to 38 – 49 – 13 / 44.5%. As for the Atlantic Division, an increase has ensued there as well with improvement from last week’s 38 – 48 – 15 / 45.1% to this week’s 46 – 51 – 16 / 47.8%. And divisionally, the East versus the Central Division was 35 – 48 – 13 / 43.2% (against last week’s 30 – 48 – 13 / 40.1% or a change of + 3.1%) and against the Pacific was a 49 – 52 – 16 / 48.7% record (against last week’s 43 – 50 – 14 / 46.7% or a change of + 2%).

2. Current OT/SO percentage increased from last week’s 24.7% to this week’s 25.5%.  And for the fifth time in the last six weeks the number of games ending in OT versus a SO increased, this time from last week’s 39% to 39.3%.

3. For PP and PK numbers, Pittsburgh remains the number one PP team for the fourth straight week with a 26.2% success rate, slightly down from last week’s 26.7%. Florida is in the basement for the second straight week with a 10.7% PP rate. Vancouver retains the top slot on the PK for the seventh consecutive week with another 90.2% rate. And the Islanders remain at the 30th position, also for the seventh straight week with only another slight improvement to 72.6% from last week’s 72%.

4. As for the average W%, the East’s increased from 51.5% to 52.3%. Seven (down from eight) teams are currently at or above that mark, with Pittsburgh displacing Boston as the best at 72.3%. The Number 8 slot is Toronto’s at 52.6%. Out West, the W% is down from 61.4% to 60.8%, a mark nine teams can still tie or beat. Number 1 is St. Louis at 74.3% while Minnesota remains Number 9 at 60.8%.

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Saturday, 21 December’s games:

NHLeast21DEC

Some notes here reference G40 maximum calls:

1. Five (down from six) Eastern Conference teams can reach a CS call for G40. Four have already done so and remain at CS unless criteria are met to make a Shot Off The Post call.

2. No (down from one) teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call at G40.

3. Five (up from three) teams cannot beat an In The Curve (ITC) at G40. One has already locked in that call and will be announced when they reach the G40 mark.

4. No teams currently project as a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call at G40.

5. And six Eastern teams remain at Tee Time (T2) at G40.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, Philadelphia replaces Carolina in the Top 3 of the Metro Division.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – The New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text and dates have ben corrected since last week’s blog):

FRI., 27 DEC – OTT, PIT, TOR (the first G40 PQC calls)

SAT., 28 DEC – DET, NJD,

SUN., 29 DECFLA, MTL, NYI, NYR,

MON., 30 DEC – WSH

TUE., 31 DECBOS, BUF, CAR, CBJ, PHI,

WED., 1 JAN – TBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Saturday, 21 December’s games:

NHLwest21DEC

Western notes:

1. Up to nine (down from 10) teams can earn a CS call at G40. Six teams already have and remain at CS unless criteria is met to make a Shot Off The Post call.

2. No teams project as an SS call at G40.

3. Two (up from one) teams project as a maximum of an ITC call at G40.

4. No teams are a DoC call at G40.

5. And three teams remain T2 calls for G40.

6. There were a few adjustments to the ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ Top 8 teams in the Western Conference since our last blog posting:

  • Based on wins, Anaheim displaced St. Louis as No. 1 with the Blues dropping to No. 2.
  • Chicago retained their No. 3 slot, but Anaheim and St. Louis’ wins pushed Los Angeles from No. 2 to No. 4.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text, again, with date corrections from last week’s blog):

FRI., 27 DECCHI, EDM, MIN, WPG (the first G40 PQC calls)

SAT., 28 DEC – ANA, VAN

MON., 30 DEC – LAK, NSH

TUE., 31 DEC – CGY, SJS

THUR., 2 JAN – COL, DAL, PHX, STL (the last G40 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Saturday, 28 December after Friday, 27 December’s games are completed…

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NHL Week 12 (Saturday, 14 December): What Have We Learned?

Game 30 (G30) furlong calls are now complete. With more than 30% of the NHL schedule accomplished, we have a good idea of almost two–thirds of the 2014 Playoff picture. Below are our final calls through G30 and the new schedule for G40 calls.

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. West Versus East dominance continues for a 12th straight week. After a couple of weeks of improvement in Winning Percentage (W%), however, the east dropped from last week’s 69 – 84 – 23 / 45.7% to this week’s overall 73 – 95 – 27 / 44.4%. The Metro Division dropped to 35 – 47 – 12 / 43.6% after last week’s 28 – 36 – 9 / 44.5% and its representative three-week rise. The Atlantic Division also trailed off a bit to 38 – 48 – 15 / 45.1% from last week’s 35 – 42 – 14 / 46.2%. While they did worse against the West overall, they fared worse against the Central with a 30 – 48 – 13 / 40.1% (against last week’s 29 – 41 – 12 / 42.7% or a change of – 2.6%) than the Pacific with a  43 – 50 – 14 / 46.7% record (32 – 36 – 10 / 47.4% or a change of – .7%).

2. Current OT/SO percentage increased a bit from last week’s 24.3% to this week’s 24.7%.  And for the first time in the last five weeks, the number of games being solved in OT versus a SO decreased from 39.4% to 39% even.

3. For PP and PK numbers, Pittsburgh remains the number one PP team for the third straight week with a 26.7% success rate, slightly up from last week’s 26.6%. Florida finds themselves back in the basement having displaced Winnipeg with the 10.8% PP rate the Jets held last week. Vancouver retains the top slot on the PK for the sixth consecutive week with another increase in proficiency, this time up to 90.2% from last week’s 89.2%. And the Islanders retain the 30th position for the sixth straight week with only a slight improvement to 72% from last week’s 71.6%.

4. As for the average W%, the East’s remained stagnant at 51.5%. Eight (down from nine) teams are currently at or above that mark, with Boston the best at 69.7%. The Number 8 slot is now solely Carolina’s at 51.5%, the statistical average for the East. Out West, the W% is 61.4%, a mark nine (up from eight) teams can tie or beat. Number 1 is St. Louis at 75.8% while Minnesota is now Number 9 at 61.4%, again, the statistical average.

5. Finally, what is interesting is that we calculate projected points three ways. This is a week where the statistical numbers do not exactly line up. Here, in order, is what we have as an average for top, projected points in the East:

Boston 114.3 (variance of 1.251 points)

Pittsburgh 114.2 (variance of 1.254 points)

Montreal 102.6 (variance of 2.242 points)

Tampa Bay 102.2 (variance of 1.13 points)

Washington 99.5 (variance of 1.113 points)

Toronto 91.7 (variance of 1.015 points)

Four other teams are a Top 8 in either one or two projected points calculations. In order, they are Philadelphia and New Jersey with two Top 8’s and Detroit and Carolina with one Top 8 each. All calculation variations average a .982 points spread, meaning the model is in decent agreement point-wise and that it will take between 115 – 113 and 85 – 84 points to be a playoff team in the East. There is just disagreement on the final two teams to qualify out of four likely contenders.

The West is a slightly different model:

St. Louis 121.9 (variance of 4.299 points)

Los Angeles 118.3 (variance of 2.16 points)

Colorado 116 (variance of 4.041 points)

Chicago 115.3 (variance of 6.868 points)

Anaheim 109.6 (variance of 6.27 points)

San Jose 109.4 (variance of 7.919 points)

Vancouver 103.9 (variance of 2.878 points)

There are two teams that do not hit all three Top 8’s: Phoenix has two Top 8’s and Minnesota has one. As you can see the projected, average points are higher, but the spread is greater. This means things are a little less certain than in the East. It will take somewhere between 125 – 118 and 105 – 100 points to be a playoff team in the West.

That is a big difference between the two conferences, largely defined by better Western Conference play against the East and Edmonton within the Conference.

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Saturday, 14 December’s games:

NHLeast14DEC

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Six Eastern Conference teams can reach a CS call for G40. Four have already done so and remain at CS unless criteria are met to make a Shot Off The Post call.

2. One team can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call at G40.

3. Three teams cannot beat an In The Curve (ITC) at G40.

4. No teams currently project as a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call at G40.

5. And six Eastern teams are at Tee Time (T2) at G40.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, Carolina replaces the Rangers in the Top 3 in the Metro Division.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – The New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 7 JAN – NYI, PIT,

WED., 8 JAN – MTL, NYR, OTT

THUR., 9 JAN – CAR, NJD, TOR

SAT., 11 JANBOS, CBJ, DET, FLA, PHI, TBL

SUN., 12 JANBUF, WSH

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Saturday, 14 December’s games:

NHLwest14DEC

Western notes:

1. Up to 10 teams can earn a CS call at G40. Six teams already dis and remain at CS unless criteria are met to make a Shot Off The Post call.

2. No teams project as an SS call at G40.

3. One team projects as a maximum of an ITC call at G40.

4. No teams are a DoC call at G40.

5. And three teams remain T2 calls for G40.

6. There was several adjustments to the ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ Top 8 teams in the Western Conference since our last blog posting:

  • The top for teams all shuffled positions. St. Louis moved up from No. 3 to No. 1; Los Angeles from No. 4 to No. 2; Chicago slid from No. 1 to No. 3; and Anaheim from No. 2 to No. 4
  • The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds were no change, but the Wild Card teams switched places with Vancouver now at No. 7 and Phoenix at No. 8

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

SUN., 5 JANCHI, EDM, WPG (the first G40 PQC calls)

TUE., 7 JAN – ANA, MIN, VAN

THUR., 9 JAN – LAK, NSH, SJS

SAT., 11 JAN – CGY, COL

SUN., 12 JAN – DAL

MON., 13 JAN – PHX

TUE., 14 JAN – STL (the last G40 PQC call)

Our next blog will be posted on Sunday, 22 December after Saturday, 21 December’s games are completed…

NHL Week 11 (Thursday, 12 December): What Have We Learned?

Game 30 (G30) furlong calls are now complete. With more than 30% of the NHL schedule accomplished, we have a good idea of a large majority of the 2014 Playoff picture. Below are our final calls through G30 and the new schedule for G40 calls.

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East dominance rundown continues next Sunday, 15 December.

2. The current OT/SO percentage also will be updated in the same blog as indicated above.

3. Ditto for PP and PK numbers.

4. And also for Conference winning percentages (W%).

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Thursday, 12 December’s games:

NHLeast12DEC

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Four Eastern Conference are a CS call for G30.

2. No teams are Sharpening Skates (SS) at G30.

3. Five teams are In The Curve (ITC) at G30.

4. One team currently is a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call at G30.

5. And six Eastern teams are at Tee Time (T2) at G30.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, Carolina drops out of the Top 3 in the Metro Division and are replaced by the Rangers.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ The Detroit Red Wings have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for the 2013/4 NHL season and the New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play and the Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The New York Rangers have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The Washington Capitals have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

9 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Philadelphia Flyers have been called at Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 7 JAN – NYI, PIT,

WED., 8 JAN – MTL, NYR, OTT

THUR., 9 JAN – CAR, NJD, TOR

SAT., 11 JANBOS, CBJ, DET, FLA, PHI, TBL

SUN., 12 JANBUF, WSH

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Thursday, 12 December’s games:

NHLwest12DEC

Western notes:

1. Six teams are a CS call at G30.

2. Two teams are an SS call at G30.

3. Three teams are an ITC call at G30.

4. No teams are a DoC call at G30.

5. And three teams are T2 calls for G30.

6. There was one major adjustment to the ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ Top 8 teams in the Western Conference since our last blog posting. For the first time in weeks, Minnesota dropped out of the Top 8. They were replaced by Vancouver in the Pacific Division.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Vancouver Canucks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – The Winnipeg Jets have been called Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Minnesota Wild have been called Sharpening Skates (SS), or just short of IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

10 December 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Phoenix Coyotes have been called Sharpening Skates (SS), or just short of IN the 2014 Playoffs. The Coyotes know they have to play hard to keep up with the likes of the Californians in front of them. They Fenwick For % (FF%) is in the upper teens in all situations plus a 100–or–better PDO with one exception, the Power Play. A team that in the past has prided itself on its defensive game is a bit less so this season so far, and it is magnified when a man or two short. Couple that with the fact that their G30 total is their best since the 2004/5 Lockout and you know offense has been the deciding factor. With defense their Achilles Heel, that will be the point of attack for opponents and improvement must be a point of emphasis for the Coyotes going forward.

12 December 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Dallas Stars have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play. There’s a win against Anaheim. Then two SO losses. Followed by a victory in Chicago. Then, later, a blow out by Chicago. And a loss in Nashville. This, ladies and gentlemen, is a fickle team. It needs some continuity. This all might be predictable considering the recent loss of two of the team’s most sturdy Blueline veterans. And yet they hang there, right In The Curve. What Dallas needs to do to end their playoff drought is be better than Minnesota and Vancouver and be just as good as Phoenix. That is their recipe for seeing play after 13 April.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

SUN., 5 JANCHI, EDM, WPG (the first G40 PQC calls)

TUE., 7 JAN – ANA, MIN, VAN

THUR., 9 JAN – LAK, NSH, SJS

SAT., 11 JAN – CGY, COL

SUN., 12 JAN – DAL

MON., 13 JAN – PHX

TUE., 14 JAN – STL (the last G40 PQC call)

Our next blog will be posted on Sunday, 15 December after Saturday’s games are completed…

NHL Week 11 (Monday, 9 December): What Have We Learned?

Game 30 (G30) furlong calls continue with another new Chasing Stanley (CS). It is important here to remember that no new call is given at each furlong once a team earns a CS or a Tee Time (T2) call as we stick by our predictions unless we come to a point where the criteria indicates a Shot Off The Post has occurred. (For instance, there is no new call for Calgary although they are at G30 tonight because they earned a T2 call in the G20 furlong.)

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East dominance rundown continues next Sunday, 15 December.

2. The current OT/SO percentage also will be updated in the same blog as indicated above.

3. Ditto for PP and PK numbers.

4. And also for Conference  winning percentages (W%).

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Monday, 9 December’s games:

NHLeast9DEC

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Four Eastern Conference teams have a shot at earning a CS call for G30.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call by G30, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Five (down from six) teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call by G30 and are listed in the chart.

4. One (up from NO) team currently project a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call, or just short of OUT of the Playoffs. (See below.)

5. And six Eastern teams are a Tee Time (T2) projection, or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, Carolina drops out of the Top 3 in the Metro Division and are replaced by the Rangers.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ The Detroit Red Wings have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for the 2013/4 NHL season and the New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play and the Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The New York Rangers have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The Washington Capitals have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

9 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Philadelphia Flyers have been called at Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs. For the second straight furlong, the Flyers are caught flirting with potential elimination from the 2014 Playoffs. Luckily, they come up a little short to the good side of that mark with another DoC call. Their bacon was saved by winning at a .550 Hockey clip this go ‘round. The issue here is that there is not a lot of wiggle room to slip into the Playoffs, even in the Metro Division. Look at it this way – in five game increments, they have won at this pace: 1; 2; 1.5; 4.5; 3; and 2.5 games. They must begin to ride an upward bow wave, key injuries be damned, or they might not be so lucky at G40. To be blunt, were they not in the Southeast, er, Metro Division, we would not have confidence that they would still be kicking with that weak heartbeat. Their theme going into G40? Win big or go home…

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

THUR., 5 DECMTL, PIT

FRI., 6 DEC – CAR, DET, NJD

SAT., 7 DECBUF, FLA, NYI, NYR, OTT, TOR

SUN., 8 DEC – BOS, WSH

MON., 9 DEC – CBJ, PHI

TUE., 10 DECTBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Monday, 9 December’s games:

NHLwest9DEC

Western notes:

1. Six teams out of the West can earn a CS call by G30.

2. Two teams below is an SS call at their G30 mark.

3. Three (up from two) teams cannot surpass an ITC call out of the West. One team has already secured that mark and another will be announced at their G30 this week. This includes an adjustment for Winnipeg upward from DoC to ITC based on dynamic adjustments to the Playoff Qualifying Curve.

4. No (down from one) teams below is a DoC call at their G30 mark.

5. And three teams are T2 calls for G30 as one new team joins this group.

6. There were no adjustments to the last blog’s ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ seedings projection based on games through Monday night.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Vancouver Canucks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – The Winnipeg Jets have been called Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Minnesota Wild have been called Sharpening Skates (SS), or just short of IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 3 DEC – ANA, VAN (the first G30 PQC calls)

THUR., 5 DEC – CHI, EDM, MIN, WPG

SAT., 7 DEC – LAK, NSH

SUN., 8 DEC – SJS

TUE., 10 DEC – CGY, PHX

THUR., 12 DEC – COL, DAL, STL (the last G30 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Wednesday, 11 December for Phoenix played on 10 December…

 

NHL Week 11 (Sunday, 8 December): What Have We Learned?

Game 30 (G30) furlong calls continue with another new Chasing Stanley (CS). It is important here to remember that no new call is given at each furlong once a team earns a CS or a Tee Time (T2) call as we stick by our predictions unless we come to a point where the criteria indicates a Shot Off The Post has occurred. (For instance, there is no new call for San Jose although they are at G30 last night because they earned a CS call in the G10 furlong.)

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East dominance rundown continues next Sunday, 15 December.

2. The current OT/SO percentage also will be updated in the same blog as indicated above.

3. Ditto for PP and PK numbers.

4. And also for Conference  winning percentages (W%).

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Sunday, 8 December’s games:

NHLeast8DEC

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Four Eastern Conference teams have a shot at earning a CS call for G30.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call by G30, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Six teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call by G30. Five (up from four) teams have already reached that mark and are listed in the chart.

4. No teams currently project a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call, or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And six Eastern teams are a Tee Time (T2) projection, or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, the Rangers drop out of the Top 3 in the Metro Division and are replaced by Carolina.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ The Detroit Red Wings have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for the 2013/4 NHL season and the New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play and the Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The New York Rangers have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs. The Bruins, many a sports writer’s/blogger’s pick to return to the Stanley Cup Finals, will at least by our estimation see the beginning of the Playoffs come April. At G30 they are first in the East and sport their second highest winning percentage since the 2005/6 season. Their Fenwick For % (FF%) is Top 10 in the NHL in all situations and the only time their PDO drifts below 100 is when Shorthanded. Although they have some injuries and suspensions to deal with, they are solid.

8 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The Washington Capitals have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play. It is fitting the Capitals get their ITC call in MSG against the Rangers whom they are dueling with for the No. 2 or 3 seed in the Metro Division. They project a couple games in front of both the Rangers and Carolina and will be fighting it out with these two clubs for the rest of the season to ensure a Playoff seed is theirs.  This ITC call helps them to stay in that fight.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

THUR., 5 DECMTL, PIT

FRI., 6 DEC – CAR, DET, NJD

SAT., 7 DECBUF, FLA, NYI, NYR, OTT, TOR

SUN., 8 DEC – BOS, WSH

MON., 9 DEC – CBJ, PHI

TUE., 10 DECTBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Sunday, 8 December’s games:

NHLwest8DEC

Western notes:

1. Six teams out of the West can earn a CS call by G30.

2. Two teams below is an SS call at their G30 mark.

3. Two teams cannot surpass an ITC call out of the West. One team has already secured that mark and another will be announced at their G30 this week.

4. One team below is a DoC call at their G30 mark.

5. And three teams are T2 calls for G30 as one new team joins this group.

6. There were several adjustments to the last blog’s ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ seedings projection based on games through Thursday night:

  • Chicago’s victory and San Jose’s loss elevates the ‘Hawks to the Number 1 seed.
  • Based on San Jose’s third straight loss, they drop to the Number 2 seed.
  • Colorado’s loss drops them to the Number 5, visitor seed.
  • And based on Division tie-breakers, Anaheim bumps up to the home team and Los Angeles drops down to the visitor for the Number 4 seed matchup.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Vancouver Canucks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – The Winnipeg Jets have been called Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Minnesota Wild have been called Sharpening Skates (SS), or just short of IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 3 DEC – ANA, VAN (the first G30 PQC calls)

THUR., 5 DEC – CHI, EDM, MIN, WPG

SAT., 7 DEC – LAK, NSH

SUN., 8 DEC – SJS

TUE., 10 DEC – CGY, PHX

THUR., 12 DEC – COL, DAL, STL (the last G30 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Tuesday, 10 December for games played on 9 December…

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

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