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1 December NHL Power Rankings


Several sites provide you NHL Power Rankings. We cannot pass up that option here at On Goal Analysis (OGA) because we believe there are things to both measure and to leave out in building those rankings and not everyone does so.

Our rankings are based on the following categories:

1. Overall W, L, OTL and Pts

2. Same as Number 1 above by Division

3. The Last 10 GP

4. The Average Winning percentages of each category in Numbers 1 – 3 above.

5. Each team’s Projected Points based on current play for GP projected out to Game 82

6. And Corsi For Percentage (CF%), Fenwick For Percentage (CF%) and PDO in All Situations, 5-On-5 Close, Power Play and Shorthanded

We take the raw numbers in each category above, rank teams from 1 – 16 (East) / 1 – 14 (West) in every category and average those rankings for an overall Power Ranking for each team. (Note here that the lower the ranking, the closer they are to Number 1 so a lower Power Ranking number is better.) Listed below are OGA Power Rankings in team order and by Conference with notes.

Eastern Conference Power Rankings

1. Boston 3.974

2. Detroit 4.316

3. Montreal 5.026

4. Pittsburgh 5.132

5. Tampa Bay 6.763

6. Toronto 6.816

7. New Jersey 7.079

8. Philadelphia 7.395

9. Washington 7.526

10. Carolina 8.632

11. New York Rangers 8.711

12. Columbus 9.079

13. Ottawa 9.184

14. New York Islanders 9.526

15. Florida 10.079

16. Buffalo 12.447 (No. 30 in the NHL)

The East’s raw data chart is right here:

EastPwrRnk1Dec

Click on chart to enlarge

The Top 8 mix is not correct for the new Playoff system. If new criteria is applied to those eight rankings, the playoff pairings should be:

(6) Toronto @ Boston (1)

(5) Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh (4)

(3) Montreal @ Detroit (2)

(8) Philadelphia @ New Jersey (7)

This has Philadelphia and/or New Jersey knocking out Washington, the Rangers and/or Ottawa. Those latter three tend to shuffle back and forth between IN or OUT of the projected playoff zone.

So what is the difference between #8 Philadelphia and #9 Washington? It comes down to the Flyers’: record versus the West’s Central Division; play in their last 10 games versus Washington’s; Corsi For – and Fenwick For Percentages in all categories; and overall advanced stats when Shorthanded. Those categories combine for a –5 ranking difference for the Capitals.

Western Conference Power Rankings

1. San Jose 3.868 (No. 1 in the NHL)

2. Los Angeles 4.579

3. Chicago 4.711

4. St. Louis 5.158

5. Anaheim 5.5

6. Minnesota 5.684

7. Colorado 6.658

8. Phoenix 6.711

9. Vancouver 7

10. Winnipeg 7.921

11. Dallas 8.105

12. Nashville 8.737

13. Calgary 9.263

14. Edmonton 10.842

The West’s raw data chart is here:

WestPwrRnk1Dec

Click on chart to enlarge

The Top 8 mix is not correct for the new Playoff system. If new criteria is applied to those eight rankings, the playoff pairings should be:

(8) Phoenix @ San Jose (1)

(7) Colorado @ Chicago (3)

(5) Anaheim @ Los Angeles (2)

(6) Minnesota @ St. Louis (4)

This group of eight is in line with currently projected playoff positions.

So what is the difference between #8 Phoenix and #9 Vancouver comes down to average Winning Percentages and the Coyotes’ record in their last 10 games.

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