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NHL Week 10 (Saturday 30 November): What Have We Learned?


We are now in NHL Week 10. Game 30 furlong analysis is in full swing with all teams’ G25’s complete. We also will have 11 Eastern and eight Western G30 PQC calls by next Saturday.

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East rundown still shows a favorable winning percentage for the West. The modest gain of a 61 – 77 – 22 / 45% record against last week’s 57 – 73 – 22 / 44.7% is not lost on us, however, as it marks a second straight, minor, upward adjustment. This means some Eastern teams are beginning to be more competitive against the West. While the Metro Division still has more losses against the West than the Atlantic, they increased their record from 24 – 33 – 9 / 43.2% to 28 – 36 – 9 / 44.5% while the Atlantic dropped a bit from 33 – 40 – 13 / 45.9% to 33 – 41 – 13 / 45.4%. The week’s biggest loser for the East was when playing the Central Division where their record stands at 24 – 37 – 11 / 41% (72) versus a record of 37 – 40 – 11 /  48.3% (88) when playing the Pacific Division. And keeping this all in mind, the east has only completed 160 of 448 / 35.7% of inter-Conference play.

2. The current OT/SO percentage dropped slightly for the first time in two weeks from last week’s 24.5% to a current 24.4%. This marks the first drop in for weeks and moves closer to the 2011/12 final percentage of 24.15%. And we note that for the third straight week, the number of games being solved in OT versus a SO increased. This week it was 37.8% of the total where last week it was 36.8% and the week before, only 33.8%.

3. As for PP and PK numbers this week, Pittsburgh is the number one PP team with a 25.3% success rate, down only 0.3% from St. Louis’ leading total last week. Florida marks their four straight week in the PP basement despite a gain from 9.3% to 10.6%. Vancouver retains the top slot on the PK for the fourth consecutive report with an 88% success rate, down from last week’s 89.2% rating. The Islanders hold the 30th position for the fourth straight week, up from last week’s 70.3% to 72.2%. That cuts their effectiveness trend losses in half with only a 1.9% cumulative drop over the four weeks.

4. And as far as winning percentages (W%) go, the East improved from a cumulative 50.6% to 51.3% over the course of the last seven days with eight teams at or above that mark. Their leading team in W% is Boston at 70.4%, while their number eight team is the Rangers at 51.8%. Out West, the W% is predictably higher at 61.5%, a mark eight teams can meet or beat. Number 1 is San Jose at 78.8% while Minnesota is Number 8 at 62.5%. Note here that the Wild’s W% is better than all but three Eastern teams.

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Saturday, 30 November’s games:

NHLeast30Nov

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Five (down from six) Eastern Conference teams have a shot at earning a CS call for G30.

2. No (down from three) teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call by G30, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Seven (up from three) teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call by G30. Two teams have already nestled into that mark and will be announced before week’s end.

4. No teams currently project a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call, or just short of OUT of the Playoffs.

5. And four Eastern teams remain a T2 projection, or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There are a couple of changes from our last blog’s final seedings projection:

  • Based on Week 9 play, all eight teams in the Playoff projection remain the same.
  • Tampa Bay, however, replaced Toronto in the Top 4 seeds at the No. 3 position.
  • And the mix of No. 5 through 8 seeds have shuffled with Toronto demoting.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

THUR., 5 DECMTL, PIT

FRI., 6 DEC – CAR, DET, NJD

SAT., 7 DECBUF, FLA, NYI, NYR, OTT, TOR

SUN., 8 DEC – BOS, WSH

MON., 9 DEC – CBJ, PHI

TUE., 10 DECTBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Saturday, 30 November’s games:

NHLwest30Nov

Western notes:

1. Seven (down from 10) teams out of the West can earn a CS call by G30. There is one new team TBA to add to the CS rolls once they reach their G30 mark early this week.

2. Two (up from zero) teams currently project as an SS call by G30.

3. Three (up from two) teams cannot surpass an ITC call out of the West. One team has already secured that mark and will be announced at their G30 early this week.

4. No team currently projects as a maximum DoC call at this time.

5. And two teams remain T2 calls for G30.

6. There were several adjustments to the last blog’s ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ seedings projection based on games through Saturday night:

  • As with the East, the Top 8 projected Playoff teams remained the same this week from last
  • However, Chicago moved up to the Number 2 seed, pushing Colorado down into the lower half group
  • While St. Louis only suffered one loss, they relinquished the Number 1 seed to San Jose and drop to Number 3.
  • And the bottom half ranks shuffled as well.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 3 DEC – ANA, VAN (the first G30 PQC calls)

THUR., 5 DEC – CHI, EDM, MIN, WPG

SAT., 7 DEC – LAK, NSH

SUN., 8 DEC – SJS

TUE., 10 DEC – CGY, PHX

THUR., 12 DEC – COL, DAL, STL (the last G30 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Wednesday, 4 December with two G30 furlong calls out of the West…

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