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NHL Week 11 (Monday, 9 December): What Have We Learned?


Game 30 (G30) furlong calls continue with another new Chasing Stanley (CS). It is important here to remember that no new call is given at each furlong once a team earns a CS or a Tee Time (T2) call as we stick by our predictions unless we come to a point where the criteria indicates a Shot Off The Post has occurred. (For instance, there is no new call for Calgary although they are at G30 tonight because they earned a T2 call in the G20 furlong.)

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. The West Versus East dominance rundown continues next Sunday, 15 December.

2. The current OT/SO percentage also will be updated in the same blog as indicated above.

3. Ditto for PP and PK numbers.

4. And also for Conference  winning percentages (W%).

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Monday, 9 December’s games:

NHLeast9DEC

Some notes here reference G30 maximum calls:

1. Four Eastern Conference teams have a shot at earning a CS call for G30.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call by G30, or just short of IN the post-season.

3. Five (down from six) teams cannot surpass an In The Curve (ITC) call by G30 and are listed in the chart.

4. One (up from NO) team currently project a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call, or just short of OUT of the Playoffs. (See below.)

5. And six Eastern teams are a Tee Time (T2) projection, or OUT of 2014 Playoff contention.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, Carolina drops out of the Top 3 in the Metro Division and are replaced by the Rangers.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ The Detroit Red Wings have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for the 2013/4 NHL season and the New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, RSBC Center, Raleigh, NC – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play and the Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The New York Rangers have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Madison Square Garden, New York, NY – The Washington Capitals have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

9 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Philadelphia Flyers have been called at Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs. For the second straight furlong, the Flyers are caught flirting with potential elimination from the 2014 Playoffs. Luckily, they come up a little short to the good side of that mark with another DoC call. Their bacon was saved by winning at a .550 Hockey clip this go ‘round. The issue here is that there is not a lot of wiggle room to slip into the Playoffs, even in the Metro Division. Look at it this way – in five game increments, they have won at this pace: 1; 2; 1.5; 4.5; 3; and 2.5 games. They must begin to ride an upward bow wave, key injuries be damned, or they might not be so lucky at G40. To be blunt, were they not in the Southeast, er, Metro Division, we would not have confidence that they would still be kicking with that weak heartbeat. Their theme going into G40? Win big or go home…

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text):

THUR., 5 DECMTL, PIT

FRI., 6 DEC – CAR, DET, NJD

SAT., 7 DECBUF, FLA, NYI, NYR, OTT, TOR

SUN., 8 DEC – BOS, WSH

MON., 9 DEC – CBJ, PHI

TUE., 10 DECTBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Monday, 9 December’s games:

NHLwest9DEC

Western notes:

1. Six teams out of the West can earn a CS call by G30.

2. Two teams below is an SS call at their G30 mark.

3. Three (up from two) teams cannot surpass an ITC call out of the West. One team has already secured that mark and another will be announced at their G30 this week. This includes an adjustment for Winnipeg upward from DoC to ITC based on dynamic adjustments to the Playoff Qualifying Curve.

4. No (down from one) teams below is a DoC call at their G30 mark.

5. And three teams are T2 calls for G30 as one new team joins this group.

6. There were no adjustments to the last blog’s ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ seedings projection based on games through Monday night.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Vancouver Canucks have been called In The Curve (ITC), or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – The Winnipeg Jets have been called Dusting Off Clubs (DoC), or just short of OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Minnesota Wild have been called Sharpening Skates (SS), or just short of IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G30 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text):

TUE., 3 DEC – ANA, VAN (the first G30 PQC calls)

THUR., 5 DEC – CHI, EDM, MIN, WPG

SAT., 7 DEC – LAK, NSH

SUN., 8 DEC – SJS

TUE., 10 DEC – CGY, PHX

THUR., 12 DEC – COL, DAL, STL (the last G30 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Wednesday, 11 December for Phoenix played on 10 December…

 

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