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NHL Week 13 (Saturday, 21 December): What Have We Learned?


Game 30 (G30) furlong calls are coming to a close with all teams beyond the G35 mark. So far, we have a good idea of almost two–thirds of the 2014 Playoff picture. Below are our final calls through G30 and the new schedule for G40 calls.

So here we go with our notes…

The NHL As A Whole

1. West Versus East dominance continues for a 13th straight week. Overall, there is a second straight increase in success versus the West at 84 –100 – 29 / 46.2% over last week’s 73 – 95 – 27 / 44.4%. The Metro Division increased their Winning % (W%) versus the West from 35 – 47 – 12 / 43.6% to 38 – 49 – 13 / 44.5%. As for the Atlantic Division, an increase has ensued there as well with improvement from last week’s 38 – 48 – 15 / 45.1% to this week’s 46 – 51 – 16 / 47.8%. And divisionally, the East versus the Central Division was 35 – 48 – 13 / 43.2% (against last week’s 30 – 48 – 13 / 40.1% or a change of + 3.1%) and against the Pacific was a 49 – 52 – 16 / 48.7% record (against last week’s 43 – 50 – 14 / 46.7% or a change of + 2%).

2. Current OT/SO percentage increased from last week’s 24.7% to this week’s 25.5%.  And for the fifth time in the last six weeks the number of games ending in OT versus a SO increased, this time from last week’s 39% to 39.3%.

3. For PP and PK numbers, Pittsburgh remains the number one PP team for the fourth straight week with a 26.2% success rate, slightly down from last week’s 26.7%. Florida is in the basement for the second straight week with a 10.7% PP rate. Vancouver retains the top slot on the PK for the seventh consecutive week with another 90.2% rate. And the Islanders remain at the 30th position, also for the seventh straight week with only another slight improvement to 72.6% from last week’s 72%.

4. As for the average W%, the East’s increased from 51.5% to 52.3%. Seven (down from eight) teams are currently at or above that mark, with Pittsburgh displacing Boston as the best at 72.3%. The Number 8 slot is Toronto’s at 52.6%. Out West, the W% is down from 61.4% to 60.8%, a mark nine teams can still tie or beat. Number 1 is St. Louis at 74.3% while Minnesota remains Number 9 at 60.8%.

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Saturday, 21 December’s games:

NHLeast21DEC

Some notes here reference G40 maximum calls:

1. Five (down from six) Eastern Conference teams can reach a CS call for G40. Four have already done so and remain at CS unless criteria are met to make a Shot Off The Post call.

2. No (down from one) teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call at G40.

3. Five (up from three) teams cannot beat an In The Curve (ITC) at G40. One has already locked in that call and will be announced when they reach the G40 mark.

4. No teams currently project as a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call at G40.

5. And six Eastern teams remain at Tee Time (T2) at G40.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. There was only once change from our last blog update. Based on their loss last night, Philadelphia replaces Carolina in the Top 3 of the Metro Division.

7. PQC breakdown:

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – The New Jersey Devils have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Ottawa Senators have been called at Tee Tim (T2), or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Atlantic Division teams are in BOLD Text and dates have ben corrected since last week’s blog):

FRI., 27 DEC – OTT, PIT, TOR (the first G40 PQC calls)

SAT., 28 DEC – DET, NJD,

SUN., 29 DECFLA, MTL, NYI, NYR,

MON., 30 DEC – WSH

TUE., 31 DECBOS, BUF, CAR, CBJ, PHI,

WED., 1 JAN – TBL

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Saturday, 21 December’s games:

NHLwest21DEC

Western notes:

1. Up to nine (down from 10) teams can earn a CS call at G40. Six teams already have and remain at CS unless criteria is met to make a Shot Off The Post call.

2. No teams project as an SS call at G40.

3. Two (up from one) teams project as a maximum of an ITC call at G40.

4. No teams are a DoC call at G40.

5. And three teams remain T2 calls for G40.

6. There were a few adjustments to the ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ Top 8 teams in the Western Conference since our last blog posting:

  • Based on wins, Anaheim displaced St. Louis as No. 1 with the Blues dropping to No. 2.
  • Chicago retained their No. 3 slot, but Anaheim and St. Louis’ wins pushed Los Angeles from No. 2 to No. 4.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called Chasing Stanley (CS) at G10, the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at Tee Time (T2), or the tenth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called Chasing Stanley (CS), or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

8. The G40 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in BOLD Text, again, with date corrections from last week’s blog):

FRI., 27 DECCHI, EDM, MIN, WPG (the first G40 PQC calls)

SAT., 28 DEC – ANA, VAN

MON., 30 DEC – LAK, NSH

TUE., 31 DEC – CGY, SJS

THUR., 2 JAN – COL, DAL, PHX, STL (the last G40 PQC calls)

Our next blog will be posted on Saturday, 28 December after Friday, 27 December’s games are completed…

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