“…We’re Going (NHL) Streaking….”

Throughout the NHL season, there are positive and negative streaks that occur with abandon. Below, we talk about streaking from the macro (NHL-wide) to micro (team) level as of games played on Thursday, 9 January…

Last Saturday, 4 January, the Western Conference average Winning % (W%) dropped below .600 for the first time since Week 2 in this season.

Seven teams in each Conference have W%’s at or above their Conference average.

Overall in the NHL, 69 of 173 / 39.9% of all teams going into OT/SO end in Overtime. By comparison, the 2011/12 numbers were 149 of 297 / 50.2%.

At OGA, we run three models for projected, season-ending points:

1. In the Eastern Conference, PIT, BOS and TBL all project at  or above 100 points in all models. MTL, PHI and WSH all project between 93 and 99 points and in all three models. TOR, NYR, DET and CAR also project as potential playoff teams with projections between 87 and 90 points. The models’ margin of error is 1.4 points, meaning the total range of points for Eastern Playoff teams is between 85 and 121 points.

2. The Western Conference is a bit easier – eight teams project as the Top 8 in al three models. STL, ANA, CHI, SJS, COL and LAK are all in the 100 point club. VAN and PHX are the other two teams who project 95 and 98 points. The margin of error is larger at 3.8 points, so the range for these eight teams with error is between 94 and 129 points.

Here at OGA, we are fans of what we call the “10 Pound Bag Theory,” or the premise that there is just so much of an overall collective effort pool to divide up. While the sum of those who are winning and losing may not exactly equal zero as the theory may suggest, here are some facts by conference, division and team:

1. The sum of winning and losing streaks in the Eastern Conference is +8 / average of +0.5 games. The Atlantic Division is a combined -9 with only FLA on a one-game W streak. The combined Metro Division streak is +17 with CAR at an Eastern Conference high +5 and all eight teams currently on the plus side in the W column by at least one game.

2. The sum of winning and losing streaks in the Western Conference is -1 / average of -0.07 games. The Central Division is a combined +1 with STL on an NHL high seven-game W streak as the leader. The Pacific Division streak is a combined -2 with ANA at a division-best +5.  In all, six of 14 teams, evenly dispersed between these divisions, enjoy W streaks of at least one game.

And for teams playing tonight and on 10 January since the 2004/5 Lockout ushered in the current Hockey era:

Eastern Conference

TOR is on a +2 streak, is an overall 2 – 5 and looking to break their current three-game losing streak (“-3”).

CAR is -1, 2 – 3 overall and likely to break their current, +5 winning-streak.

CBJ (playing CAR) is -1, a combined 2 – 1 and looking to improve upon their current +1 streak before traveling to WPG on Saturday.

NYI is +1, 1 – 1 overall and wanting to continue to improve upon their +2 streak.

NYR is +2, 3 – 1 since 2004/5 and hoping DAL continues to los so they can string out their +1 (4 – 2 – 1 overall) string since Christmas.

PIT does not like 10 JAN at a -3, 1 – 5 overall (not having a game on this date only in the 2009/10 season) but looking to increase their current +3 string.

WSH is a – 2, 0 – 1 – 1 overall since the previous Lockout and needing to add to their current +1 streak to keep up with PHI.

Western Conference

COL is at -1, 2 – 1 overall and looking to extend their +1 current / 4 – 2 – 1 since Christmas streaks.

DAL, as if desiring to cooperate with the NYR’s wishes above, is a -4 and 0 – 3 – 1 historically and in desperate need to break their current -4 streak.

STL is -1, 2 – 1 overall and more and more likely to break their currently running streak of +7 with each upcoming game.

EDM is a historical +3, although they have not played on this date since the 2007/8 season, 3 – 0, and needing any W they can muster.

And finally, VAN is +1, 2 – 2 since 2004/5 and, if STL’s W streak is to end, a team that has the capacity to potentially make that happen.

We hope these tidbits are an informative look at today’s streaks in the NHL…


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