Uncategorized

NHL Week 18 (Friday, 24 January / Sunday 2 February): What Have We Learned?


We closed out the Game 50 (G50) stretch with 21 of 30 Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls made. We are on our way toward G60 and the Olympic break and need to catch up. Below are some key notes about overall play, where we were with PQC calls at G50 on Friday 24 January, and how we currently look going into G60.

The NHL As A Whole

1. The season long spat of West Versus East dominance remains on the wane. Compared to where we were through Saturday, 18 January, the overall comparison looks like this:

18 January: Eastern versus the West at 118 – 114 – 31 / 50.8%

Atlantic Division: 61 – 58 – 17 / 51.1%

Metro Division: 57 – 56 – 14 / 50.4%

2 February: Eastern versus the West at 135 – 129 – 38 / 51% (a change of 17 – 15 – 7 / +.2%)

Atlantic Division: 71 – 66 – 19 / 51.6% (a change of 10 – 8 – 2 / +.5%)

Metro Division: 64 – 63 – 19 / 50.3% (a change of 7 – 7 – 5 / –.1%)

Best and worst, respectively, for the Atlantic against the West? Boston at 71.1% and Buffalo at 30.6%. In the Metro, it’s Pittsburgh at 71.9% and New Jersey at 40.9%.

2. The current OT/SO percentage is at 25.5% of all games, the same percentage as on 21 December and down a –.6% from mid-January. Games decided in OT versus a SO continue to slowly from 41% to 41.3% in the last two weeks.

3. Pittsburgh is the PP leader at a 24.7% effectiveness rate. The team holding down the cellar continues to be Florida with a frankly horrible 8.8% rate, down from 10.6% three weeks ago. Pittsburgh is also the top PK team at 87.6% and the Islanders remain at the bottom of the league with a slightly improved 76.8%.

4. The average W% continues to improve in the Eastern Conference’s favor as both Conferences converge on the mean statistic. The East is at the 54.4% mark, a slight improvement over the last few weeks. After games played on 2 February, there are nine Eastern teams at or above that mark as competition in the East heats up. The sagging West is at a 58.7% average. However, only five Western teams are currently at or above that mark.

5. Who in the East is playing their best since the 2004/05 Lockout and the birth of the PQC? On 2 February where Boston, Buffalo and Carolina were a game short of the G55 mark, teams at their best are: Columbus (+.5 games); Pittsburgh (+3 games); and Toronto (tied). In the West, teams at their best over that span are: Anaheim (+4.5 games); Colorado (at G50 was +2.5 games); and St. Louis (at G50 was +3 games).

6. Who in the East is playing their worst since the 2004/05 Lockout and the birth of the PQC? On 2 February where Boston, Buffalo and Carolina were a game short of the G55 mark, teams at their best are: Buffalo (–8 games); Detroit (–1 games); and Florida (–.5 games). In the West, teams at their best over that span are: Dallas (tied); Calgary (–4.5 games); and Edmonton (tied).

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Friday, 24 Januarys games:

NHLeast24JAN

Notes reference Eastern G50 maximum calls:

1. At G50, four Eastern Conference teams have a chance at a CS call. This is the same four who already met this mark and remain so unless conditions to make a Shot Off The Post (SotP) call are reached.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call as we look toward G50.

3. Five teams cannot be better than In The Curve (ITC) by G50.

4. No teams are a possible Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) at G50.

5. And the same, named, seven Eastern teams remain at a Tee Time (T2) heading toward G50.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. Since or last post of this information, all but the Top 3 teams have morphed:

  • NYR has moved up to the No. 5 seed.  Their opponent would be CAR from the No. 6 seeded slot.
  • Based on TOR’s winning streak, they have moved up to the No. 4 seed and would face TBL.
  • MTL slides down to the No. 7 Wild Card slot.
  • And CBJ pops back up into the projected, No. 8 Wild Card slot.

7. PQC breakdown (with new, CS or T2 calls in bold text):

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at T2, or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at T2, or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at T2, or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called CS, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at T2, or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called CS, or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called CS, or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – The New Jersey Devils have been called at T2, or the seventh team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, QC – The Ottawa Senators have been called at T2, or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called CS, or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

31 December 2013, PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called at T2, or the twelfth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

18 January 2014, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, QC – The New York Rangers have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

18 January 2014, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

20 January 2014, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The Philadelphia Flyers have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

21 January 2014, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – The Washington Capitals have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

22 January 2014, Joe Louis Arena, Detroit, MI – The Detroit Red Wings have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8. The G60 Projection Schedule is (with Atlantic Division teams in bold font; teams in parentheses have already secured either a CS or T2 call):

SAT., 8 FEB(NYI), TOR

WED., 26 FEB(MTL)

THUR., 27 FEB – DET, (NJD), NYR, (OTT), PHI, WSH

FRI., 28 FEB – (BUF)

SAT., 1 MAR – (CAR, CBJ, FLA), (PIT, TBL)

SUN., 2 MAR(BOS) (the last G50 PQC call)

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Friday, 24 January’s games:

NHLwest24JAN

Western notes:

1. At G50, six Western Conference teams have a chance at a CS call. Those six calls were already made and remain unchanged unless we reach conditions to make a Shot Off The Post (SotP) call.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call as we look toward G50.

3. Four teams are an In The Curve (ITC) by G50.

4. No teams project as a DoC call for G50.

5. And four Western teams currently remain at a Tee Time (T2) heading toward G50.

6. There was only one adjustment to the ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ Top 8 teams in the Western Conference since our last blog posting: based on current projections, MIN moves up to the No. 7 Wild Card seed and PHX slides down to the No. 8 Wild Card seed.

7. PQC breakdown:

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called CS, or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called CS, or the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at T2, or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called CS, or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at T2, or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called CS, or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called CS, or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at T2, or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called CS, or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

27 December 2013, MTS Centre, Winnipeg, MB – The Winnipeg Jets have been called at T2, or the eleventh team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 January 2014, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Minnesota Wild have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

18 January 2014, Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC – The Vancouver Canucks have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

21 January 2014, American Airlines Center, Dallas,TX – The Dallas Stars have been called at DoC, or just about eliminated from the 2013-14 NHL Playoffs.

22 January 2014, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Phoenix Coyotes have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8. The G60 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in bold text; teams in parentheses have already secured either a CS or T2 call):

FRI., 7 FEB – (CHI), (EDM) (the first G60 PQC calls)

SAT., 8 FEB – (ANA), (WPG), VAN

WED., 26 FEB – (LAK)

THUR., 27 FEB – MIN, (NSH), (SJS)

FRI., 28 FEB – (COL), PHX

SAT., 1 MAR – (CGY), DAL

SUN., 2 MAR(STL) (the last G50 PQC call)

So as a bottom line, G60 PQC calls in the Eastern Conference will all occur on 8 and 27 FEB, and out West, on 8 FEB, and between 27 FEB and 1 MAR. Either way you slice it, the Olympics break us up.

Our next blog will be posted on Sunday, 9 February as the Olympic break begins where we give you a look toward G60 status and a rundown of all 30 teams…

Advertisements

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 27 other followers

%d bloggers like this: