Uncategorized

Team Streaks And The Olympic Effect: Part 1 of 4 – The Atlantic Division


Coming out of the 2014 Sochi Olympics, all NHL teams will be hot and heavy on the schedule through 13 April’s season closeout. So how did your favorite team do in the 10 games before and after their last two Olympic breaks, where are they going in this season, and what is their estimated post-Sochi performance? We have your numbers below…

Atlantic Division Teams’ History

Boston Bruins 2006 Turin, Italy: Before 5 – 3 – 2 / .600; After 3 – 6 – 1 / .350; out of the playoffs with 64 points, their lowest total since the 2004/05 Lockout.

2010 Vancouver: Before 4 – 3 – 3 / .550; After 4 – 5 – 1 / .450; in the playoffs with 91 points, losing to Philadelphia, the Eastern Conference Champion, in seven games of Round 2.

Buffalo Sabres 2006 Turin, Italy: Before 7 – 1 – 2 / .800; After 8 – 2 – 0 / .800; in the playoffs with 110 points, losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to Carolina, the Stanley Cup winner.

2010 Vancouver: Before 3 – 5 – 2 / .400; After 5 – 4 – 1 / .550; in the playoffs with 100 points, losing to Boston in six games of Round 1.

Detroit Red Wings  2006 Turin, Italy: Before 7 – 1 – 2 / .800; After 8 – 2 – 0 / .800; in the playoffs with 124 points, their highest total since the 2004/05 Lockout, losing in six games of Round 1 to Stanley Cup Champion runner-up, Edmonton.

2010 Vancouver: Before 3 – 3 – 4 / .500; After 7 – 2 – 1 / .750; in the playoffs with 102 points which ties for their lowest total since the previous Lockout; lost in five games of Round 2 to San Jose.

Florida Panthers 2006 Turin, Italy: Before 4 – 5 – 1 / .450; After 6 – 3 – 1 / .650; out of the playoffs with 85 points.

2010 Vancouver: Before 3 – 6 – 1 / .350; After 5 – 4 – 1 / .550; out of the playoffs with 77 points, their second lowest point total since 2005/06.

Montreal Canadiens  2006 Turin, Italy: Before 5 – 3 – 2 / .600; After 5 – 4 – 1 / .550; in the playoffs with 92 points, losing in six games of Round 1 to Carolina, the Stanley Cup winner.

2010 Vancouver: Before 4 – 5 – 1 / .450; After 7 – 2 – 1 / .750; in the playoffs with 88 points, losing out to Philadelphia, the Eastern Conference Champion, in five games of the Conference Finals.

Ottawa Senators 2006 Turin, Italy: Before 5 – 4 – 1 / .550; After 8 – 2 – 0 / .800; in the playoffs with 113 points, their most since the 2004/05 Stoppage; lost in five games of Round 2 to Buffalo.

2010 Vancouver: Before 8 – 2 – 0 / .800; After 2 – 7 – 1 / .250; in the playoffs with 94 points, losing to Pittsburgh in six games of Round 1.

Tampa Bay Lightning 2006 Turin, Italy: Before 7 – 2 – 1 / .750; After 8 – 1 – 1 / .850; in the playoffs with 92 points, losing to Ottawa in five games of Round 1.

2010 Vancouver: Before 5 – 4 – 1 / .550; After 5 – 4 – 1 / .550; out of the playoffs with 80 points.

Toronto Maple Leafs 2006 Turin, Italy: Before 3 – 5 – 2 / .400; After 4 – 5 – 1 / .450; out of the playoffs with 90 points.

2010 Vancouver: Before 2 – 6 – 2 / .300; After 6 – 3 – 1 / .550; out of the playoffs with 74 points, their lowest total since the 2004/05 Lockout.

Where Are They Now And What Can Be Expected?

Here are the Atlantic Division parameters of historical play:

Biggest average gain: Florida at +.200

Biggest one-season gain:  Montreal in 2009/10 at +.300

Biggest one-season loss: Ottawa in 2009/10 at –.550

Biggest average loss: Boston at –.175

Average gain / loss: +.050

When you look at team post-Olympic averages – which is nothing outside of the above parameters – and combine that with current team play, you get our analysis below for Atlantic Division play into mid-March.

Boston Bruins The B’s are 4 – 1 – 1 in their last seven games with three to play before the break. That projects as .750 Hockey before the Olympics. They averaged a -.175 in the two previous Olympic years. If that average occurs again, they would likely be in the range of 5 – 5 – 1 to 6 – 0. They project with us as a Playoff team with a Winning Percentage (W%) of .676 and 110 – 111 points.

Buffalo Sabres Frankly stated, this is Buffalo’s worst season since the 2004/05 Lockout. They are 2 – 5 – 1 in their last eight games with two more to go until the break. They project at a .313 W%. Averaging a post-Olympic +.075 would boost them to something like a 3 – 5 – 1 to 4 – 6 record going into March. We project them as out of the Playoffs with a W% of .352 at between 57 and 61 points.

Detroit Red Wings The easy, unstudied, offhanded comment would be to say ‘Detroit moved to the East like they always wanted to and started losing.’ In fact, while making the Playoffs every year since the 2004/05 Lockout (and more), they have been in decline in terms of W% since the 2005/06 season. And yet, they are fighting hard at 4 – 2 – 2 in their last eight contests with two games to play before the break. This makes them currently a .625 W% team. Their average improvement being a +.125 would, if it holds, nudge them upwards to a 7 – 2 – 1 team after the Olympics. We project them as on the cusp of either in or out of the Playoffs with a .554 W% and between 87 to 91 points. To make the Playoffs this year, they will need a high-octane, post – Olympic effort.

Florida Panthers While not in the same boat as Buffalo, Florida’s ship has already set sail for this season. They are 3 – 4 in their last seven with another three to play before the break, making them a .429 team. Averaging a straight, +.200 after the last two Olympics added to that total makes them a .629 team with between a 6 – 4 to 6 – 3 – 1 record. We have them out of the Playoffs, however, at an overall .445 W% with between 73 and 74 points, or about five wins shy of a Playoff seed.

Montreal Canadiens The Habs are 2 – 4 – 1 / .429 in their last seven with three to play before the break. They average a +.125 post-Olympics, which would have them at a .554 W% and a possible record of between 5 – 5 to 5 – 4 – 1. Despite their slippage of late, we see them in the Playoffs with an overall W% of .571 and somewhere between 92 and 94 points.

Ottawa Senators The Senators have been erratic of late. They are 3 – 2 – 2 in their last seven with three games to play before the Olympic break, or playing .500 Hockey. Since they average a post-Olympics drop off of –.150, that could bring them down to a .350 W% or a projected 3 – 6 – 1 heaing into March. We have them out of the 2014 Playoffs at a .527 W% and between 83 and 86 points, or 2.5 – 3.5 games short of a Playoff seed.

Tampa Bay Lightning The Bolts have been playing very well, specially in light of the injury-plagued year they have suffered. They are 4 – 3 in their last seven with three left before the break. That puts them at a W% of .571. Add to that their average post-Olympics improvement of +.050 and they are looking at an early March record of between 6 – 4 and 6 – 3 – 1. We have them in the 2014 Playoffs at a W% of .627 and between 103 and 105 points.

Toronto Maple Leafs And the Leafs are 5 – 1 – 1 in their last seven with three games left until the Sochi break. That’s .786 Hockey that could be met with as much as a +.150 boost. But rather than earning a post-Olympic 9 – 0 – 1 record, let’s look at a worst-case correction, ala Ottawa in 2009/10. Toronto’s worst 10-game stretch to date was the Game 31 – 40 spread where they won four of ten. That could be the next, worst drop on this sometime roller-coaster season for Toronto. But after their last .400 stretch, they played the next 10 games at a .600 clip. Such a final 20 games and, say, a .500 finish of their last two contests would make them a .537 team with 88 points and, like Detroit, on the cusp of either in or out of the Playoffs. We project them as a potential Playoff team with between 95 and 97 points. So a bit of a fall off after Sochi may not be as devastating as the Toronto media will make it out to be just as long as there is a requisite recovery.

What remains to be seen is how the above analysis plays out in the Metro Division and for the Eastern Conference as a whole, the subject of our next posting. “…Part 2 of 4 – The Metro Division” in this series will be posted as a blog on Friday, 7 February followed by both of the Western Conference divisions during the Olympic break…

Advertisements

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 2 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 2 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 2 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 2 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 2 years ago

Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

Join 27 other followers

%d bloggers like this: