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NHL Week 19 (Saturday, 8 February): What Have We Learned?


We are beginning G60 calls.

The NHL As A Whole

1. East versus West. The East continues to increase its Winning Percentage (W%) against Western Conference teams:

Eastern Conference versus the West are 150 – 137 – 41 / 52%, a W% increase of +1.2% from our last blog. At 111 games played cross-Conference, the East was only sporting a 42.3% so have come up almost 10% since the first week in November.

Atlantic Division versus the West are 79 – 69 – 20 / 53%, a W% increase of +1.9% from our last blog.

Metro Division versus the West are 71 – 68 – 21 / 50.9%, a W% increase of +.5% from our last blog.

2. OT/SO numbers. The total number of games going to extra frames is 223 of 880 played, or 25.34% as of 8 February. At the end of the 2010/11 season, the total percentage was 24.15% for reference. Of those games progressing past regulation time, 42.6% are being decided in OT this season versus 50.2%, again, at the end of the 2010/11 season.

3. PP and PK leaders. The PP leader in the NHL remains Pittsburgh with a 25.4% efficiency rate. Florida is still the bottom dweller with the man advantage, performing at only a 9% clip. New Jersey displaces Pittsburgh as the leading PK team for this blog with an efficiency rating of 87.4%, while Florida holds down the bottom position here, too, at 77.2%.

4. Corsi For % (CF%) leaders. Here are the current numbers through 8 February for this advanced stats category.

Top CF% in All Situations (we are looking for a 50% or better, here) – LAK @ 55.4%.

All CF% at or better than 50% in All Situations – LAK, CHI (54%+), SJS, BOS (52%+),  NYR, NJD, STL, CAR (51%+), DAL, FLA, DET, VAN, PHX, OTT, PHI, WPG and NYI.

Worst CF% in All Situations – TOR @ 43.9%.

Top CF% when on the PP 5–on–4 (the best teams are at a 90% or better) – CBJ @ 92%.

All CF% at or better than 90% when on the PP 5–on–4 – CBJ, NYI (91%+), VAN, DET, COL (90%+), LAK, PHX, BOS, and STL.

Worst CF% when on the PP 5–on–4 – DAL @ 85.6%.

Top CF% when on the PK (the best teams are at a 12% or better) – PHI / WPG @ 15.7%.

All CF% at or better than 12% when on the PK – PHI, WPG, CAR (14%+),  OTT, BOS, MTL, NYI, SJS (13%+), CGY (12%+),  DAL and CBJ.

Worst CF% when on the PK – PIT @ 5.7%.

5. Fenwick For % (FF%) leaders. Here are the current numbers through 8 February for this advanced stats category.

Top FF% in All Situations (as with CF%, we are looking for a 50% or better ranking, here) – SJS @ 55.8%.

All FF% at or better than 50% in All Situations – SJS (55%+), CHI (54%+), LAK, STL (52%+), BOS, NYR, NJD (51%+), VAN, DAL, PIT, DET, ANA (50%+), WPG, CAR, FLA, TBL and PHI.

Worst FF% in All Situations – TOR @ 42.8%.

Top FF% when on the PP 5–on–4 (the best teams are at a 89% or better) – CBJ @ 91.6%.

All FF% at or better than 89% when on the PP 5–on–4 – CBJ (91%+), VAN (90%+), DET, NYR, COL, ANA (89%+), NSH, SJS, PIT, and MIN.

Worst FF% when on the PP 5–on–4 – NJD @ 83%.

Top FF% when on the PK (the best teams are at a 13% or better) – PHI @ 18.3%.

All FF% at or better than 13% when on the PK – PHI (18%+), BOS (16%+), MTL, WPG, NYI, SJS (15%+), ANA (14%+), CGY, OTT, CAR (13%+), DAL and CBJ.

Worst FF% when on the PK – TOR @ 6.1%.

6. PDO leaders. Here are the current numbers through 8 February for this advanced stats category.

Top PDO in All Situations (we are looking for a 100% or better with a CF% and FF% of 50% or more, here) – BOS @ 102.4%.

All PDO at or better than 100% with CF% and FF% at least a 50% in All Situations – BOS (102%+), STL, CHI (100%+), and PHI.

Worst PDO in All Situations – FLA @ 97.5%.

Top PDO when on the PP 5–on–4 (here, the best teams are at a 104% or better with a CF% and FF% at or above 88%) – NSH @ 114.5%.

All PDO at or better than 104% with CF% and FF% at or better than 88% when on the PP 5–on–4 – NSH (114%+),  COL (110%+), PIT (107%+),  SJS and MTL (105%+).

Worst PDO when on the PP 5–on–4 – WPG @ 92.8%.

Top PDO when on the PK (the best teams are at 100% or better with CF% and FF% at or above 10%) – PHI / WPG @ 15.7%.

All PDO at or better than 100%, with CF% and FF% at or above 10%, when on the PK – CAR (108%+),  CGY (104%+), CBJ (100%+)  and ANA.

Worst PDO when on the PK – PHI @ 91.1%.

And now for our current analysis of the NHL…

The Eastern Conference

Our chart below indicates how the Eastern Conference projects against the PQC through Saturday, 8 Februarys games:

NHLeast8FEB

Notes reference G60 maximum calls:

1. At G60, four Eastern Conference teams have a chance at a CS call. This is the same four who already met this mark and remain so unless conditions to make a Shot Off The Post (SotP) call are reached.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call as we look toward G60.

3. Five teams cannot be better than In The Curve (ITC) by G60. One call is already made below, and the other four have already been determined and will be listed once they hit their G60 mark.

4. No teams are a possible Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) at G60.

5. And the same, named, seven Eastern teams remain at a Tee Time (T2) heading toward G60.

6. ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ shows the Top 8 teams and who their opponents project to be. Since or last post of this information, 5th through 8th seeds have adjusted:

  • The play of PHI pushed CBJ out of the No. 6 seed by the slimmest of margins.
  • MTL slides up to the No. 5 slot as visitor to No. 3 TBL.
  • TOR drops to the No. 7 Wild Card seed based on going 1 – 1 so far this week.
  • And DET pops back up into the projected, No. 8 Wild Card slot.

This movement based solely on a loss or two in most cases shows how tight the Eastern Conference race is.

7. PQC breakdown (with new calls in bold text):

19 October 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The Buffalo Sabres have been called at T2, or the first team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

14 November 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – The New York Islanders have been called at T2, or the third team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

15 November 2013, Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul, MN – The Florida Panthers have been called at T2, or the fourth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Jobing.com Arena, Phoenix, AZ – The Tampa Bay Lightning have been called CS, the fourth team in the NHL and first in the Eastern Conference called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

17 November 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, ON – The Columbus Blue Jackets have been called at T2, or the sixth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Consol Energy Center, Pittsburgh, PA – The Pittsburgh Penguins have been called CS, or the seventh team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

5 December 2013, Centre Bell, Montreal, QC – The Montreal Canadiens have been called CS, or the eighth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

6 December 2013, Prudential Center, Newark, NJ – The New Jersey Devils have been called at T2, or the seventh team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, QC – The Ottawa Senators have been called at T2, or the ninth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 December 2013, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Boston Bruins have been called CS, or the tenth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

31 December 2013, PNC Arena, Raleigh, NC – The Carolina Hurricanes have been called at T2, or the twelfth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 February 2014, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Toronto Maple Leafs have been called at ITC, or about average for 2013-14 NHL play.

8. The G60 Projection Schedule is (with Atlantic Division teams in bold font; teams in parentheses have already secured either a CS or T2 call):

SAT., 8 FEB – (NYI), TOR

WED., 26 FEB(MTL)

THUR., 27 FEB – DET, (NJD),NYR, (OTT), PHI, WSH

FRI., 28 FEB – (BUF)

SAT., 1 MAR – (CAR, CBJ, FLA), (PIT, TBL)

SUN., 2 MAR(BOS) (the last G60 PQC call)

The Western Conference

Our Western Conference chart below indicates their PQC projections through Saturday, 8 February’s games:

NHLwest8FEB

Western notes:

Western notes:

1. At G60, six Western Conference teams have a chance at a CS call. Those six calls were already made and remain unchanged unless we reach conditions to make a Shot Off The Post (SotP) call.

2. No teams can earn a Sharpening Skates (SS) call as we look toward G60.

3. Three (down from four) teams are an In The Curve (ITC) by G60. One call has already been determined and will be posted once that club reaches their G60 mark.

4. One (up from NO) team projects as a DoC call for G60 below.

5. And four Western teams currently remain at a Tee Time (T2) heading toward G60.

6. There were two adjustments to the ‘If The Playoffs Started Today’ Top 8 teams in the Western Conference since our last blog posting:

  • Based on adjustments in winning, STL has moved up to the No.1 seed and ANA down to the projected No.2 slot.
  • And based on their winning streak and PHX’s 1 – 2 record this week, DAL has moved up to the projected No. 8 Wild Card seed for the first time this season.

7. PQC breakdown (again, with new calls in BOLD FONT):

24 October 2013, TD Garden, Boston, MA – The San Jose Sharks have been called CS, or the first team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

25 October 2013, Pepsi Center, Denver, CO – The Colorado Avalanche have been called CS, or the second team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

13 November 2013, Rexall Place, Edmonton, AB – The Edmonton Oilers have been called at T2, or the second team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – The Chicago Blackhawks have been called CS, or the third team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

16 November 2013, Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB – The Calgary Flames have been called at T2, or the fifth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

19 November 2013, First Niagara Center, Buffalo, NY – The St. Louis Blues have been called CS, or the fifth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

3 December 2013, Honda Center, Anaheim, CA – The Anaheim Ducks have been called CS, or the sixth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Canadian Tire Centre, Kanata, QC – The Nashville Predators have been called at T2, or the eighth team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

7 December 2013, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA – The Los Angeles Kings have been called CS, or the ninth team called IN the 2014 Playoffs.

27 December 2013, MTS Centre, Winnipeg, MB – The Winnipeg Jets have been called at T2, or the eleventh team called OUT of the 2014 Playoffs.

8 February 2014, Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – The Vancouver Canucks have been called at DoC, or almost eliminated from the 2014 NHL Playoffs.

8. The G60 Projection Schedule is (Central Division teams are in bold text; teams in parentheses have already secured either a CS or T2 call):

FRI., 7 FEB – (CHI), (EDM) (the first G60 PQC calls)

SAT., 8 FEB – (ANA), (WPG), VAN

WED., 26 FEB – (LAK)

THUR., 27 FEB –MIN, (NSH), (SJS)

FRI., 28 FEB – (COL), PHX

SAT., 1 MAR – (CGY), DAL

SUN., 2 MAR(STL) (the last G60 PQC call)

So as a bottom line, the rest of our G60 PQC calls in the Eastern Conference occur on 27 FEB, and out West, between 27 FEB and 1 MAR.

Our next blog will be posted on Friday, 28 February for games played coming out of the Olympic break on 27 February…

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