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NHL Predictive Analysis – 27 February

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Wednesday, 27 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 27 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 27 February:

NHL_27Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 24 wins / 48 points in the Eastern Conference and about 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Also, tie-breakers separate the 8th through 10th places in both Conferences.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 4 – of – 30 / 13.3% of NHL clubs will be a CC call by G20, including the three (Boston, Montreal and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 22 teams11 in both Conferences – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

We also have three Eastern teams and one Western team that are at Tee Time (T2) eliminated as of G20.

And our last G20 PQC call is Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC

Boston and Montreal are currently the East’s only CS teams as of G20. Ten (up from nine) teams cannot top an In the Curve (ITC) call. And Washington, Buffalo and the New York Islanders are the Conference’s Tee Time (T2) calls.

East_G20_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, one more (for a total of two) team will be ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. Twelve teams are not going to be better than ITC. And Columbus is the Western Conference’s Tee Time (T2) call at G20.

West_G20_PQC

G20’s :

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Staples Centre, Los Angeles, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Detroit Red Wings are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Wednesday, 27 February 2013, The Air Canada Centre, Toronto, ON – Based on their play through G10, the Montreal Canadiens are the third team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL Based on their play through G20, the Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH Based on their play through G20, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 27 February.

A total of four teams are CS call at their Game 20. Twenty-two more cannot top an ITC call. And four are now eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Thursday, 28 February.

PQC calls for Florida, New Jersey and Winnipeg in the East and Phoenix in the West come after games played on Thursday, 28 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

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NHL Predictive Analysis – 26 February

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Tuesday, 26 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 26 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 26 February:

NHL_26Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 24 wins / 48 points in the Eastern Conference and 26.5 wins / 53 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Also, tie-breakers separate the 8th through 10th places in both Conferences.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 4 – of – 30 / 13.3% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20, including the two (Boston and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 22 teams11 in both Conferences – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

We also have three Eastern teams and one Western team that are at Tee Time (T2) eliminated as of G20.

And our last G20 PQC call is Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. One more (for a total of two) of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call for G20. Nine teams cannot top an In the Curve (ITC) call. And while Washington is joined by Buffalo and the New York Islanders as the Conference’s Tee Time (T2) calls.

East_G20_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago still remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, one more (for a total of two) team still has a shot of ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. Twelve (up from eleven) teams are not going to be better than ITC. And Columbus is now the Western Conference’s first Tee Time (T2) at for G20.

West_G20_PQC

G20’s :

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Tampa Bay Lightning are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Buffalo Sabres are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale, NY – Based on their play through G20, the New York Islanders are the second NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH – Based on their play through G20, the Dallas Stars are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play, and the Columbus Blue Jackets are the third NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 26 February 2013, BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL – Based on their play through G20, the Pittsburgh Penguins are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 26 February.

A total of four (down from five) teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. Twenty-one (up from 20) more cannot top an ITC call. Four (up from three) are now from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Wednesday, 26 February.

PQC calls for Montreal in the East and Detroit in the West come after games played on Wednesday, 27 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

NHL Predictive Analysis – 25 February

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Monday, 25 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 25 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 25 February:

NHL_25Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25.5 wins / 51 points in the Eastern Conference and 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Also, a tie-breaker separates 8th and 9th place in the East while 1.5 wins separate the 7th through 11th seeds in the West.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 5 – of – 30 / 16.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20, including the two (Boston and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 20 teams10 in the both Conferences – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

And our last G20 PQC call is Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. Two more (for a total of three) of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call for a total of four. Nine teams cannot top an In the Curve (ITC) call. One team cannot beat a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call. And while Washington is the Conference’s current Tee Time (T2) call, we already know one more team will be at T2 come G20. (This is no change from yesterday.)

East_G20_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago still remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, one more (for a total of two) teams still have a shot of ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. One more will not outdo a Sharpening Skates (SS) call. Eleven teams are not going to be better than ITC. And we now know one team will now be a Tee Time (T2) call for G20, or eliminated from the 2013 Playoffs. (Again, this is no change from yesterday except that Dallas has now joined the list of teams who will not be eliminated from Playoff contention by G20.)

West_G20_PQC

G20’s :

Monday, 25 February 2013, Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN – Based on their play through G20, the Nashville Predators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Scotiabank Place, Ottawa, ON – Based on their play through G20, the Ottawa Senators are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Monday, 25 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Toronto Maple Leafs are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 25 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference and one T2 team in the East.

A total of five teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. One more cannot outdo a SS call. Twenty more cannot top an ITC call. One more will not be better than a DoC call, and three others are eliminated from Playoff contention.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Tuesday, 25 February where we will potentially have more Chasing Stanley calls and definitely have some Tee Time action.

PQC calls for Buffalo, the New York Islanders, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in the East and Columbus and Dallas in the West come after games played on Tuesday, 26 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Three Periods Special: The Right & Wrong of Realignment

Three Periods is a weekly column touching on hockey’s past, present and future.

In today’s edition of Three Periods, the normal format has been set aside to discuss one subject:  the NHL’s pending realignment.  As Elliotte Friedman of Hockey Night In Canada stated over the weekend, the NHL may very well look like this next season:

Conference 1:  CAR, CBJ, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH

Conference 2:  BOS, BUF, DET, FLA, MTL, OTT, TBL, TOR

Conference 3:  CHI, COL, DAL, MIN, NSH, STL, WPG

Conference 4:  ANA, CGY, EDM, LAK, PHX, SJS, VAN

In a word, this proposed realignment is brilliant.  Not only does it move Columbus and Detroit back east, but it gets Dallas out of the Pacific Division.  As icing on the cake, these necessary changes are made without breaking up most longstanding rivalries (Chicago – Detroit being one notable exception).

Another major benefit of this change is the inherent flexibility of the new format.  With the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Coyotes and talk of expansion in Quebec and the Greater Toronto area, any alignment is subject to change.  The proposed format seems well-equipped to handle such changes. Let’s walk through two scenarios:

1.  Coyotes relocate.  In this scenario, one consideration reigns above all others:  the Coyotes will NOT relocate to Canada.  Why not?  Because the NHL will have no trouble finding Canadian investors willing to pony up obscene expansion fees for clubs in Quebec and/or Markham, Ontario.  The same cannot be said for American cities at this time.  In addition, moving the Coyotes from Phoenix to Canada will shrink the NHL’s American footprint, decreasing the value of their (American) TV contract.  With that in mind, where might the Coyotes go?  Best bets are Seattle, Houston or Kansas City.

If the ‘Yotes move to Seattle, no conference change is necessary.  If either Houston or KC is their destination, they would move into Conference 3, with either Winnipeg or Colorado coming back to Conference 4.

2.  NHL expands to Quebec City and Markham.  This scenario gets a bit convoluted, but here’s what makes the most sense:  QUE and MKH go into Conference 2 with the other eastern Canadian clubs.  To make room for them, Florida and Tampa Bay move to Conference 1, with Washington coming back in return.  Detroit and Columbus would both go west again, shifting to Conference 3.  Last, but not least, either Winnipeg or Colorado would slide into Conference 4, giving the NHL four eight-team conferences.  In case that’s confusing, here’s what it would look like:

Conference 1:  CAR, FLA, NJD, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, TBL

Conference 2:  BOS, BUF, MKH, MTL, OTT, QUE, TOR, WSH

Conference 3:  CBJ, CHI, COL, DAL, DET, MIN, NSH, STL

Conference 4:  ANA, CGY, EDM, LAK, PHX, SJS, VAN, WPG

As in Scenario 1, if the Coyotes relocate to Seattle, they’ll remain in Conference 4.  If they move to Houston or KC, they’ll swap with Colorado.

What’s wrong with this picture?

Until expansion brings the NHL up to 32 clubs, two conferences will have seven teams while two have eight.  The primary complaint is that teams in the smaller conferences will have an easier road to the playoffs, under the proposed format of teams 1-4 in each conference making it in.  To offset the disparity, the league is discussing some sort of wild card playoff for the eight-team conferences.  In short, this would attempt to fix one mistake with another.  Here’s where the NHL is wrong on realignment:  conference playoffs.

The very idea of conference playoffs, with the potential of, say, Boston vs. Toronto year-after-year-after-year, is just plain terrible.  As I suggested last week, the four regular-season conference champs (which should be decided by conference record – not overall points – by the way) should be seeded 1-4, with the next-best twelve teams seeded 5-16.  Rather than a simple 1 vs 16, 2 vs 15, etc. format, the conference champs should get the benefit of choosing their first-round opponent.  Thus, the top four clubs have the option of minimizing travel and/or selecting an opponent whom they dominated in the regular season.  Once the conference champs have selected their opponents, the remaining matchups would be determined through normal seeding, i.e., 5 vs 12, 6 vs 11, and so on.

Though many will no doubt complain that this proposed format could result in increased playoff travel for many clubs, that is precisely the point:  Eastern teams currently have a distinct travel advantage through the first three playoff rounds, which this system would eliminate.  Of equal importance, this system is the only way to ensure the sixteen best teams make the playoffs every year.  Gone will be the almost-annual complaint of inferior teams in one conference making the playoffs while better teams in the other conference hit the links.

NHL Predictive Analysis – 24 February

(If you regularly read this NHL analysis, start under the title “The Chart,” and don’t miss the ending section “What Do We Already Know?”. And note – changes are in bold font except for previous Chasing Stanley or Tee Time Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC) calls.)

Below is your NHL Point Predictor and PQC update for NHL games ending Sunday, 24 February. What are we showing here? Where the NHL is going, not where they are after the last game played.

How Will We Do It? Check back here daily as we provide you the simple chart below where you can follow the NHL’s projected standings leading up to the Playoffs. The chart tells you two things: each team’s finishing points based on current play projected over the 48 game season; and our PQC calls as every team reaches each 10-game marker (i.e. Game 10, 20, 30, etc.). As teams’ PQC calls change, their standings’ line color changes to the appropriate PQC designation as explained below.

The 24 February Chart

Here are the two Conferences’ projected, final standings points after games completed on 24 February:

NHL_24Feb

From or current chart, it looks like it will take at least 25.5 wins / 51 points in the Eastern Conference and 27 wins / 54 points in the Western Conference to qualify for the playoffs. Also, a tie-breaker separates 8th and 9th place in the East while 1.5 wins separate the 6th through 11th seeds in the West.

Here are notes to explain the chart:

1. NHL Conferences are shown Western and Eastern from left to right as they would be on a map. The far left column in each chart titled ‘NHL Stnd’ indicates current team NHL standings as of the posted date. And teams use standard NHL abbreviations and color schemes.

2. ‘GP’ = Games Played.

3. ‘eW’ = Estimated Wins, our own formulary as the season progresses.

4. ‘eL’ = Estimated Losses

5. ‘eOTL’ = Estimated Overtime Losses, the third point in three-point games

6. ‘ePts’ = Estimated Points

7. ‘ePt Rnk’ = Estimated Points Rank, our order of how they will fare overall

8. And the ‘PQC Code’: ‘CS’ = Chasing Stanley, or IN the Playoffs; ‘SS’ = Sharpening Skates, or just shy of IN the Playoffs; ‘ITC’ = In The Curve, or playing right about on average; ‘DoC’ = Dusting Off Clubs, or almost OUT of the Playoffs; ‘T2’ = Tee Time, or OUT of the Playoffs; and ‘SotP’ = Shot Off The Post, or a bad call of CC or T2. Remember, the PQC Codes get called every 10 games.

“What Do We Already Know?”

We currently know 5 – of – 30 / 16.7% of NHL clubs have a shot at a CC call by G20, including the two (Boston and Chicago) who have already reached that mark.

We also know 19 teams – 10 in the East and nine in the West – will not be eliminated from playoff contention by G20.

And our last G20 PQC call is Boston on 5 March.

Eastern Conference PQC

Boston remains the East’s only CS team as of G10. Two more (for a total of three) of the Conference’s 15 teams retain the possibility of earning a CS call for a total of four. Nine teams cannot top an In the Curve (ITC) call. One team cannot beat a Dusting Off Clubs (DoC) call. And while Washington is the Conference’s current Tee Time (T2) call, we already know one more team will be at T2 come G20.

East_G20_PQC

Western Conference PQC

Chicago still remains both undefeated in regulation time and the West’s only CS team as of G10. Along with the Blackhawks, one more (for a total of two which is down from three) teams still have a shot of ending the G20 stretch as a CS call. One more will not outdo a Sharpening Skates (SS) call. Eleven teams are not going to be better than ITC. And we now know one team will now be a Tee Time (T2) call for G20, or eliminated from the 2013 Playoffs.

West_G20_PQC

G20’s :

Saturday, 23 February 2013, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA – Based on their play through G20, the Philadelphia Flyers are In The Curve, or about average for NHL play

G10’s (IN or OUT calls):

Sunday, 10 February 2013, HSBC Arena, Buffalo, NY – Based on their play through G10, the Boston Bruins are the second team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, HP Pavilion, San Jose, CA – Based on their play through G10, the Chicago Blackhawks are the first team designated as Chasing Stanley, or IN the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Tuesday, 5 February 2013, Verizon Center, Washington, DC – Based on their play through G10, the Washington Capitals are the first NHL team designated at Tee Time (T2), or ELIMINATED from the 2013 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Summary

This is the updated NHL Point Predictor and PQC Standings chart based on games ending 24 February. We already know we have one each CS team in each Conference and one T2 team in the East.

A total of five (down from seven) teams have a shot at a CS call going into their Game 20. One more cannot outdo a SS call. Twenty more cannot top an ITC call. One more will not be better than a DoC call, and three others are eliminated from Playoff contention.

PQC calls for Ottawa and Toronto in the East and Nashville in the West come after games played on Monday, 25 February.

Your next update will be posted after games played on Monday, 25 February.

Go to the bottom of the right hand column, load in your email address and click on the ‘Sign Me Up!’ button to subscribe to the OGA Blogs and you will not miss an NHL update (and the NHL ones when/if they come to an agreement.)

Twitter Updates

  • ...This suggests that the LAK will defeat CHI in Game 6 to play the NYR for the Stanley Cup 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 66.7% of the time; also, Western series are determined by Game 5.889... 3 years ago
  • ...So those stats point to the NYR claiming victory tonight and playing the winner from the Western Conference in the Finals 3 years ago
  • Since 2005/6, when a Round 3 team wins Game 5, they lose Game 6 60% of the time; also, Eastern series are determined by Game 5.778... 3 years ago
  • 4. Top 4 in each DIV play 2 rounds seeded within the DIV, 1 round versus other DIV champ and then the Finals between the Conference champs. 3 years ago

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